Focusing on at least fifty thousand people, I set two parallel paths, which may overlap:

Generalist Crowdshang

The wisdom of a large crowd, whose number is significantly greater than the most rigid experimental thresholds, considers at least ten thousand subjects who are asked binary questions. Multiplying the sample size reduces the forks and significantly improves the estimates of what has proved to be the most effective method, the Shang Method. One face-to-face group, formed and coordinated with all the necessary requirements, verifies the outcomes critically.

Specialist Crowdshang

The wisdom of an expert crowd; as before, but with hundreds of experts on the subject of the forecast. Here again, the multiplier of the current operational number is remarkable. To the qualitative advantage, the quantitative one is added: the test group is composed by the best experts.

In the most significant cases, it is possible to cross two versions, for a more proficient accuracy.

Crowdshang method

The following scheme shows the historical and expected values. A large crowd responds to repeated binary questions

An experience group in face-to-face interviews verifies the estimate and perfections it. The following table shows an example

Link to PowerPoint presentation in English